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    Seminario Steven Scott (Google)

    Il giorno venerdì 2 settembre alle ore 17, presso l’Aula Martini al piano interrato dell’edificio U6,  Steven Scott, Senior Economic Analyst at Google, terrà un seminario su

    Predicting the Present with Bayesian Structural Time Series

    This article describes a system for short term forecasting based on an ensemble prediction
    that averages over different combinations of predictors. The system combines a structural
    time series model for the target series with regression component capturing the contributions of contemporaneous search query data. A spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients induces sparsity, dramatically reducing the size of the regression problem. Our system averages over potential contributions from a very large set of models and gives easily digested reports of which coefficients are likely to be important. We illustrate with applications to initial claims for unemployment benefits and to retail sales. Although our exposition focuses on using search engine data to forecast economic time series, the underlying statistical methods can be applied to more general short term forecasting with large numbers of contemporaneous predictors (joint work with Hal Varian).

    Tutti gli interessati sono invitati a partecipare; sarà anche possibile seguire in streaming. L’evento è organizzato in collaborazione con Innovation Pub.

    Steve sarà in Italia per una scuola di una settimana sul Lago di Como alla quale parteciperanno anche i nostri dottorandi. Vi segnalo anche la conferenza per il grande pubblico su Google data and Public Sentiment che si terrà a Como il giorno 30 agosto alle 18.00. Per approfondimenti consultate la pagina web di Scott.